Why a War With Iran Would Be Political Suicide for Trump’s Presidency
US military move against Iran would face strong domestic opposition and carry major political risks for President Trump.
United States, PUREWILAYAH.COM - According to an analysis published by Iran’s Mehr News Agency, a potential US military aggression against Iran would pose serious political risks for Donald Trump, as it would contradict his campaign pledge to avoid new wars and run counter to prevailing public opinion in the United States.
During his 2024 election campaign, US President Donald Trump repeatedly promised to end “endless wars.” He portrayed himself as the antithesis of former US leaders who dragged America into the quagmires of Iraq and Afghanistan, appealing to voters exhausted by the human and financial toll of foreign wars.
Now, the same president—supported by the same social base—has threatened military aggression against Iran. According to Mehr, such a move would amount to political suicide.
The demands of Trump’s war-oriented team directly contradict the dominant sentiment of US public opinion, which overwhelmingly opposes war with Iran, including within the traditional Republican base.
US Public Opinion Strongly Opposes War With Iran
Mehr notes that recent US polls show unprecedented opposition to a military attack on Iran. A poll conducted by SSRS and the University of Maryland between February 5 and 9, 2026 shows that only 21 percent of Americans support a military strike on Iran, while 49 percent are clearly opposed and 30 percent remain undecided.
This represents a dramatic shift compared to previous wars. According to a Gallup poll, when former US President George W. Bush invaded Iraq in 2003, 72 percent of Americans supported the war after months of propaganda about weapons of mass destruction.
Mehr emphasizes that such public consent no longer exists and that memories of Iraq and Afghanistan remain deeply ingrained.
Republican Divisions and Eroding Trust
Even within the Republican Party—Trump’s core voting base—there is no consensus in favor of war with Iran.
Only 40 percent of Republicans support attacking Iran, while 25 percent oppose it and 35 percent remain undecided. This split highlights deep fractures within Trump’s social base on the issue of military confrontation.
Polling data further underscores this skepticism. A survey by the AP-NORC Public Affairs Research Center, conducted between February 19 and 23, 2026, shows that while 48 percent of Americans view Iran’s nuclear program as a serious threat, only about 30 percent trust Trump’s judgment when it comes to using military force.
More than half of respondents say they trust him “only a little” or “not at all.” Among Republicans under the age of 45, confidence drops even further, indicating growing doubt among younger conservatives.
Broad Public Rejection of Military Intervention
Broader polling reinforces this trend. A The Economist–YouGov survey found that 48 percent of Americans oppose military action against Iran, compared with just 28 percent who support it.
Similarly, a Quinnipiac University poll showed that 70 percent of Americans believe the United States should not interfere in Iran’s internal affairs, even after Trump stated Washington would be “ready and armed.”
Taken together, these figures point to a broad and decisive rejection of interventionism across the US political spectrum.
MAGA Opposition and Growing Domestic Pressures
Opposition to war has also been voiced openly by influential figures within Trump’s own MAGA movement. Steve Bannon has repeatedly stressed that resistance to endless wars is a core MAGA principle.
Marjorie Taylor Greene has warned that foreign wars put America last, cost innocent lives, and drain national resources. Charlie Kirk has emphasized that Trump’s appeal—particularly to younger voters—stemmed from the fact that he did not initiate new wars.
At the same time, Trump faces mounting domestic challenges. On February 21, 2026, the US Supreme Court ruled 6–3 that his retaliatory tariff measures were illegal, dealing a major blow to his economic agenda.
With the November 2026 midterm elections approaching, polls show Democrats favored to regain control of the House of Representatives. Trump himself has warned that losing Congress could expose him to impeachment proceedings. His approval rating now averages 42 percent, compared with a 55 percent disapproval rate.
War With Iran as Political Suicide
Against this backdrop, any military aggression against Iran would likely trigger an immediate and severe backlash. Heavy casualties and images of returning coffins—memories that remain vivid from the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan—would inflame public anger.
Republicans would face a midterm electoral disaster, while Trump would be forced to govern the remainder of his term under a hostile Congress and persistent impeachment efforts. Voters who supported him on a “no war” platform would not forgive a conflict that costs American lives, and nationwide protests would be likely.
At the same time, Iran has issued clear warnings that any attack would lead to a regional war and provoke decisive retaliation. Iranian officials have stressed that any miscalculation would be met with a swift and painful response.
As the analysis concludes, Trump would be taking a losing gamble: an aggression against Iran would threaten not only regional stability, but also his own political future and the future of the Republican Party itself. (PW)