Holding democratic elections within a crumbling colonial regime amidst a native uprising is an event of little historical consequence. As Israel approaches its October 27 elections, the political theatre unfolding in Tel Aviv will do nothing to alter the terminal trajectory of its colonial project. History shows us that settler-colonial states in decay—whether apartheid South Africa or French Algeria—do not vote their way toward reform. Instead, facing existential threats from indigenous populations, they invariably shift toward extremism and heightened savagery to protect their accumulated privileges. Israel is no exception.
To understand the irrelevance of the upcoming ballot, we must distinguish between the internal squabbles of the Israeli political class and the existential stakes facing the entity itself. For Israel, there are only two possible futures: slow decomposition or rapid disappearance. Neither will be decided at the polling stations.
The path of slow decomposition is already underway. The myth of Israel’s eternal military invincibility was shattered on October 7, 2023. Despite the subsequent, horrific massacres and the devastating bombardment of Gaza and Lebanon, the initial military debacle exposed the deep vulnerabilities of the Zionist state. The indigenous Palestinian resistance, alongside allied forces in Lebanon, Iraq, Yemen, and Iran, remains unyielding.
For the settlers, the psychological toll of this shattered illusion is profound. It is increasingly difficult to maintain the settler mindset when the colonial army can no longer guarantee absolute dominance over a resistant demographic majority. Consequently, a steady exodus is already hollowing out the state. With an estimated one million settlers having already left and nearly a third of those remaining openly considering emigration, the demographic foundation of the colony is collapsing from within. Historically, no settler colony has survived in the face of an unyielding native demographic majority.
The alternative path—rapid disappearance—looms as a terrifying possibility driven by regional geopolitical failures. Following a string of strategic defeats by Washington in its attempts to subdue Iran in 2026, the US-Israeli alliance is out of conventional options. This desperation has sparked dangerous murmurs of breaking the nuclear taboo. If Washington continues to normalise existential threats, a cornered Israel might resort to a nuclear strike against Iran. Such an act of ultimate atrocity would not secure Israel’s survival; rather, it would trigger its rapid, forced dismantling by the international community—or plunge the entire region into a catastrophic nuclear winter.
Amidst these apocalyptic stakes, the Israeli elections are little more than a macabre spectacle. The political deadlock between Benjamin Netanyahu and his rivals is not a debate over the nation’s salvation, but a grim contest to see who will be forced to take the wheel of the Titanic. Netanyahu embodies the organic, extreme nature of the settler project, and his rivals know that stepping into his shoes means inheriting an unmanageable disaster: the administration of extermination camps, failed ethnic cleansing, unwinnable regional wars, and the terrifying prospect of pressing the nuclear button. Consequently, his opponents are likely to let him remain at the helm, preferring to critique from the sidelines rather than serve as the regime’s official liquidators.
Ultimately, the era of false compromises is over. The colonial “emergency exit” that allowed white South Africans to maintain economic power post-apartheid, or the capitulation of the Oslo Accords, is no longer on the table. There is no longer a “Frederik De Klerk” figure in Israel capable of guaranteeing settler privileges, nor is there a Palestinian leadership willing to sign away their indigenous rights for a hollow peace.
The complete political, judicial, and territorial decolonisation of Palestine is inevitable, likely within the next five years. Until that day arrives, the world will be forced to watch the grotesque spectacle of settlers democratically voting on who gets to operate the human shredder, blissfully ignoring the fact that the ship is already going down.
Holding democratic elections within a crumbling colonial regime amidst a native uprising is an event of little historical consequence. As Israel approaches its October 27 elections, the political theatre unfolding in Tel Aviv will do nothing to alter the terminal trajectory of its colonial project. History shows us that settler-colonial states in decay—whether apartheid South Africa or French Algeria—do not vote their way toward reform. Instead, facing existential threats from indigenous populations, they invariably shift toward extremism and heightened savagery to protect their accumulated privileges. Israel is no exception.
To understand the irrelevance of the upcoming ballot, we must distinguish between the internal squabbles of the Israeli political class and the existential stakes facing the entity itself. For Israel, there are only two possible futures: slow decomposition or rapid disappearance. Neither will be decided at the polling stations.
The path of slow decomposition is already underway. The myth of Israel’s eternal military invincibility was shattered on October 7, 2023. Despite the subsequent horrific massacres and the devastating bombardment of Gaza and Lebanon, the initial military debacle exposed the deep vulnerabilities of the Zionist state. The indigenous Palestinian resistance, alongside allied forces in Lebanon, Iraq, Yemen, and Iran, remains unyielding.
For the settlers, the psychological toll of this shattered illusion is profound. It is increasingly difficult to maintain the settler mindset when the colonial army can no longer guarantee absolute dominance over a resistant demographic majority. Consequently, a steady exodus is already hollowing out the state. With an estimated one million settlers having already left and nearly a third of those remaining openly considering emigration, the demographic foundation of the colony is collapsing from within. Historically, no settler colony has survived in the face of an unyielding native demographic majority.
The alternative path—rapid disappearance—looms as a terrifying possibility driven by regional geopolitical failures. Following a string of strategic defeats by Washington in its attempts to subdue Iran in 2026, the US-Israeli alliance is out of conventional options. This desperation has sparked dangerous murmurs of breaking the nuclear taboo. If Washington continues to normalise existential threats, a cornered Israel might resort to a nuclear strike against Iran. Such an act of ultimate atrocity would not secure Israel’s survival; rather, it would trigger its rapid, forced dismantling by the international community—or plunge the entire region into a catastrophic nuclear winter.
Amidst these apocalyptic stakes, the Israeli elections are little more than a macabre spectacle. The political deadlock between Benjamin Netanyahu and his rivals is not a debate over the nation’s salvation, but a grim contest to see who will be forced to take the wheel of the Titanic. Netanyahu embodies the organic, extreme nature of the settler project, and his rivals know that stepping into his shoes means inheriting an unmanageable disaster: the administration of extermination camps, failed ethnic cleansing, unwinnable regional wars, and the terrifying prospect of pressing the nuclear button. Consequently, his opponents are likely to let him remain at the helm, preferring to critique from the sidelines rather than serve as the regime’s official liquidators.
Ultimately, the era of false compromises is over. The colonial “emergency exit” that allowed white South Africans to maintain economic power post-apartheid, or the capitulation of the Oslo Accords, is no longer on the table. There is no longer a “Frederik De Klerk” figure in Israel capable of guaranteeing settler privileges, nor is there a Palestinian leadership willing to sign away their indigenous rights for a hollow peace.
The complete political, judicial, and territorial decolonisation of Palestine is inevitable, likely within the next five years. Until that day arrives, the world will be forced to watch the grotesque spectacle of settlers democratically voting on who gets to operate the human shredder, blissfully ignoring the fact that the ship is already going down.
This opinion piece is adapted from an original article by Daniel Lobato, “Who wants to take the wheel of the Israeli genocide?”, published on Al Mayadeen.