More than a decade since the inception of the Saudi-led aggression, the geopolitical calculus in the Arabian Peninsula has undergone a profound shift. Far from achieving its maximalist objectives, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia finds itself ensnared in a protracted conflict that has severely degraded its strategic standing. Recent assessments from geopolitical experts, including University of Tehran Professor Mohammad Marandi and US commentator Karen Kwiatkowski, underscore a glaring reality: the war in Yemen has not weakened the Yemeni Armed Forces (Ansar Allah); rather, it has exposed the existential vulnerabilities of the Saudi regime.
The Shifting Battlefield and Morale Deficits
Contrary to the narratives propagated by Western-aligned and Saudi-funded media outlets, the ground realities in Yemen point to a steady consolidation of power by the Yemeni Armed Forces. Ansar Allah has not only defended the nation’s sovereignty but has advanced on multiple fronts, reclaiming strategic territories.
Crucially, the ideological and moral dimension of the conflict has decisively tilted in Yemen’s favour. The Saudi-backed mercenary factions suffer from a profound crisis of morale. They are increasingly unwilling to fight and die against a battle-hardened national movement that has gained widespread regional admiration for its steadfast defence of Palestine and its operations in support of Gaza. This asymmetric motivation ensures that Riyadh’s financial investments in proxy militias continue to yield diminishing military returns. As analysts note, the Saudis have effectively already lost the war; the expansion of Yemeni territorial control is a reality Riyadh will simply have to accept.
The Oil Trap and Economic Exposure
Saudi Arabia’s most glaring vulnerability lies in its monolithic economic structure. Despite its vast wealth, the Kingdom possesses only one critical strategic asset: its oil industry. As regional tensions ripple through vital maritime chokepoints like the Red Sea and the Strait of Hormuz, the cost and viability of Saudi energy exports are under immense pressure.
The deterrence equation has fundamentally changed. Yemen possesses the advanced military capabilities to paralyse Saudi energy infrastructure, yet exercises calibrated restraint. Its objective is not the total destruction of the Kingdom, but the coercion of the Saudi leadership into ending the blockade and aggression. However, should Riyadh choose to escalate the conflict, the Yemeni response could drive Saudi oil exports to absolute zero, triggering an immediate internal economic and political crisis for the regime.
Furthermore, Riyadh’s financial lifeline is heavily tethered to Western markets. With Saudi bonds and stocks deeply embedded in US financial institutions, the Kingdom’s economic sovereignty is compromised. In an era of shifting American political priorities, there is no guarantee that Washington would allow the Gulf states to freely withdraw their capital to save their own economies during a crisis.
Washington’s Role and the Risk of Regional Conflagration
The United States remains deeply enmeshed in the war in Yemen, providing the intelligence, logistical backing, and political cover necessary for the Saudi war machine. However, Washington’s strategic vision remains fractured. Commentators warn that the US political leadership risks conflating the various independent fronts of resistance into a single, monolithic “war.”
This approach—lumping Yemen, Iran, and parts of Iraq into a unified theatre of operations—serves only to justify broader US-Saudi military coordination and deeper American meddling. Yet, this strategy is inherently flawed. Integrating Saudi territory and military facilities into a broader US-led confrontation with the Axis of Resistance does not secure American interests; it merely turns the Arabian Peninsula into a primary target zone, further widening the scope of the conflict and accelerating the Kingdom’s descent into instability.
Conclusion
The prolonged war on Yemen stands as a testament to the failure of coercive diplomacy and military aggression against a self-sufficient, ideologically motivated resistance. Riyadh’s continued pursuit of an unwinnable war drains its financial reserves, alienates its population, and leaves its critical infrastructure perpetually at risk. Unless the Saudi leadership abandons its reliance on deceptive media narratives and American security guarantees, it faces a strategic collapse that no amount of petrodollars will be able to reverse.
Reference: Al-Mayadeen