Geneva Academy: Gaza Death Toll May Surpass 200,000 — Far Exceeding Official Figures
Human rights experts and medical researchers indicate official casualty figures may significantly understate the true scale of deaths in Gaza amid ongoing Israeli military assaults.
Palestine | PUREWILAYAH.COM — The Geneva Academy of International Humanitarian Law and Human Rights has estimated that the death toll in Gaza could exceed 200,000, citing demographic indicators showing a decline of more than 10 percent in the Strip’s population since the start of the war.
The assessment comes amid growing international scrutiny over whether official figures released by Gaza’s Ministry of Health fully reflect the scale of fatalities resulting from Israel’s ongoing military campaign.
Population Decline Signals Mass Casualties
Stuart Casey-Maslen, head of the Geneva Academy, stated that by October 2023 Gaza’s population had decreased by more than 10 percent, a reduction corresponding to approximately 200,000 deaths.
He emphasized that officially reported figures do not capture the full extent of human losses. A substantial number of victims, he noted, may remain trapped under rubble, unregistered, or unrecovered.
“The significant population decline is a serious indicator of the magnitude of the humanitarian catastrophe,” he said, adding that while the estimates require independent verification, if confirmed they would demonstrate that the true number of casualties far exceeds officially announced figures.
Reconstruction to Require Years and Billions
The Geneva Academy further stressed that rebuilding Gaza will require years of sustained work and investments amounting to billions of dollars, given the widespread destruction of infrastructure, residential buildings, and essential facilities.
Large sections of the Strip have been reduced to rubble following continuous Israeli bombardment targeting urban areas, hospitals, and civilian infrastructure.
The Lancet Study Raises Further Doubts Over Official Figures
Separately, the British magazine The Economist recently highlighted a study published in The Lancet, one of the world’s most respected medical journals, which examined the accuracy of casualty reporting in Gaza.
The Lancet study noted substantial challenges in accurately counting deaths under conditions of sustained bombardment and health system collapse. Gaza’s Ministry of Health relies primarily on two data sources: hospital-based records and online reporting forms submitted by families of victims.
Researchers adopted a different statistical methodology. They compared three separate databases containing names, ages, and in some cases identification numbers of victims — two from the Ministry of Health and a third compiled independently from social media documentation of martyrdom notices.
The report concluded that an unknown number of Palestinian civilians have died from indirect consequences of the war, including lack of medical care due to the collapse of Gaza’s healthcare system. These deaths are currently impossible to quantify with precision.
Statistical Modeling Suggests Underreporting
Kevin McConway, a professor of applied statistics at a British university, stated that researchers employed multiple statistical approaches previously used to assess casualties in other global conflicts. He described the resulting estimates as convincing and methodologically sound.
One key reason official figures may underestimate fatalities, researchers noted, is the exclusion of missing persons from formal counts. Thousands remain unaccounted for, many believed to be buried beneath destroyed buildings.
Official Figures Versus Independent Estimates
According to official data from Gaza’s Ministry of Health, the death toll since the start of Israel’s military campaign on October 7, 2023, has reached 72,045, with 171,686 wounded.
Since October 10, 2025 — following the implementation of a ceasefire agreement — repeated Israeli violations of the truce, reportedly exceeding 1,620 incidents, have resulted in an additional 591 deaths and 1,578 injuries, according to official figures. A number of victims remain trapped under rubble and have not yet been recovered.
If demographic projections indicating over 200,000 deaths are verified, the scale of destruction in Gaza would represent one of the most severe human catastrophes of the 21st century. (PW)