Atwan: Israel Trapped Between Two Losing Options as Iran Draws a Red Line Around Beirut
Iran’s response to Israeli threats against Beirut has transformed Lebanon into a decisive test for both Washington and Tel Aviv, while Hezbollah continues to hold strategic surprises in reserve.
Lebanon, PUREWILAYAH.COM — Prominent Palestinian analyst and Editor-in-Chief of Rai Al-Youm, Abdel Bari Atwan, devoted his latest editorial to the rapidly escalating situation in Lebanon following Israeli threats to bomb Beirut’s Southern Suburb and Iran’s subsequent warning that any violation of the ceasefire framework in Lebanon would carry serious consequences.
In an editorial focusing on the latest developments in Lebanon, Atwan wrote that after the joint statement issued by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and War Minister Israel Katz threatening military action against Beirut’s Southern Suburb in response to Hezbollah operations in northern occupied Palestine, attention across the region shifted toward Lebanon and the possibility of a wider confrontation.
Israeli Threats Against Hezbollah Produce the Opposite Effect
Atwan stressed that Israeli threats against Hezbollah would not achieve their intended objective.
According to the Palestinian analyst, threats against Beirut’s Southern Suburb would neither halt Hezbollah’s operations nor deter the Resistance. Instead, they would lead to further escalation and inflict greater losses on the occupation regime.
He noted that such escalation could also jeopardize the ceasefire understanding between Iran and the United States, which Washington had recently extended for an additional sixty days.
Atwan wrote that if those understandings collapse, the consequences could extend far beyond Lebanon, opening the door to a broader confrontation involving Iran and exposing the occupation regime to new military pressures across occupied Palestine.
He pointed to Hezbollah’s recent missile and drone operations against Tiberias and Kiryat Shmona as an initial response to the occupation forces’ symbolic advance toward the strategic Beaufort Castle (al-Shaqif) in southern Lebanon.
Iran’s Warnings Reshaped the Crisis
Atwan identified two Iranian statements as among the most significant developments in the crisis.
The first came from Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, who emphasized that the ceasefire understanding between Iran and the United States includes all fronts, including Lebanon, and that any violation on one front constitutes a violation of the entire agreement.
The second came from Brigadier General Abolfazl Shekarchi, senior spokesman of the Iranian Armed Forces, who declared that Iran would not tolerate the continuation of Israeli crimes in Lebanon.
According to Atwan, the practical political impact of these positions appeared immediately when Tehran suspended indirect exchanges of messages with Washington through mediators following Israeli escalation against Lebanon and threats directed at Beirut’s Southern Suburb.
He noted that freezing those contacts effectively placed the broader diplomatic track under pressure and signaled that developments in Lebanon could no longer be separated from wider regional calculations.
Israel Faces a Strategic Dilemma
Atwan wrote that Israel has placed itself in a difficult strategic position through its continued aggression against Lebanon.
If the occupation regime proceeds with threats against Beirut, it risks provoking a broader confrontation that could draw Iran directly back into the conflict and dramatically expand the scope of the war.
At the same time, retreating from those threats would be viewed as a major political and strategic victory for Iran and the Axis of Resistance.
According to Atwan, Israel now faces two unfavorable choices, neither of which offers a clear path toward success.
He stressed that continued escalation could transform the confrontation into a prolonged war of attrition while exposing the occupation regime to simultaneous pressure from multiple fronts.
Hezbollah Holds Strategic Surprises
Atwan emphasized that Hezbollah has prepared extensively for such a confrontation and possesses significant military capabilities that have yet to be fully revealed.
He wrote that the Resistance has successfully concealed highly advanced capabilities, particularly in the field of explosive-laden drones and precision weapons that have repeatedly challenged Israeli detection and interception systems.
According to Atwan, Hezbollah has demonstrated an ability to preserve strategic surprises while maintaining operational effectiveness despite months of confrontation.
He added that the movement is fighting on its own territory and enjoys advantages that differ fundamentally from those faced by previous opponents of the occupation regime in Lebanon.
A Third Defeat in Lebanon?
Atwan concluded that Israel appears to be repeating the same mistakes that led to previous setbacks in Lebanon.
He recalled that the occupation regime occupied Beaufort Castle and established a security zone in southern Lebanon following the 1982 invasion, only to withdraw in humiliation after years of resistance.
The first major setback came with Israel’s withdrawal from southern Lebanon in 2000. The second followed the July 2006 war.
Atwan wrote that Israel has failed to learn from those experiences and now faces a Resistance force equipped with missiles, drones, combat experience, and deep roots within Lebanese society.
He concluded that repeating the same policies and strategic calculations is likely to produce the same outcome once again, warning that Israel may be moving toward a third defeat in Lebanon—one that could prove even more significant than those that preceded it. (PW)