As we head into the New Year, there appears to be no realistic breakthrough to Northern Ireland’s long-running political crisis. In a fresh attempt to break the deadlock, Anglo-Irish sponsored talks aimed at restoring power sharing are set to resume on Thursday, January 02.

But there is a very narrow deadline to broker a deal (only 11 days in fact), before the Northern Ireland Secretary, Julian Smith, is expected to call for a fresh assembly election.

   Northern Ireland’s political crisis began in January 2017 when the two governing parties fell out over a botched energy scheme.

The Irish Republican Sinn Féin and the Loyalist Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) became embroiled in a bitter dispute over the so-called Renewable Heat Incentive (RHI) scheme, which by some estimates cost Northern Irish tax payers up to £490 million.

   The row has meant that the Northern Ireland Assembly at Stormont (Belfast) has remained inactive for three years.

This political crisis has been exacerbated by Brexit and specifically the uncertainties surrounding Northern Ireland’s trading and economic status – in addition to fears of a return of a “hard” border with the Republic of Ireland - once the UK departs the European Union.

Brexit uncertainty has in turn energised the Irish Unity movement – spearheaded by Sinn Féin and other nationalist groups – as demonstrated by growing calls for an Irish border poll, which equates to a referendum on Irish unification.

In a sign that the British establishment is growing increasingly anxious, former British diplomat and Downing Street Chief of Staff under Tony Bair, Jonathan Powell, said recently that Brexit “could lead” to a United Ireland “within a decade”.